Indian Economy - Depreciating INR

Saturday, August 24, 2013

I came across an article , providing the details about fall of INR in recent time. The illustration and explanation was excellent however outflow of FII Debt funding alone may not be the only reason towards fall in INR value. India had been a closed economy till 90's and was forced to open up the economy in early 90's due to balance of payment crisis at that point of time. In a 'open' economy the many factors contribute or triggers such fall . 

To me, the other factors which is contributes to depreciation of INR can be,

 Foreign Equity inflows (FII and  FDI) are good for open economy, not only from investment perspective it is also said generate employment. But, then at the some pint of time, there is bound to be repatriation of profit in form of dividend or other investment. So naturally there would be an outflow. No business man would like to keep the equity for ever, without appropriate returns. 

Corporate Debt: It is said debt content with major corporate has increased over the years. More importantly about 40 to 50% of debt is in foreign currency. Now with dollar appreciating, the Indian corporate have to burn more money not only in form of interest, principle but also due to depreciated INR. This would certainly increase outflow of foreign exchange in future.

Oil import: There is no respite for oil bills import expenses or rather the outgo of foreign exchange on Y-n Y basis. It has been on increase always. Just look at the number of vehicles registered in an RTO in metro’s, one could judge the increase in vehicle registered, so naturally consumption of fuel is bound to increase, unless the country has efficiently planned public transport. 

Gold Import: Amid all the efforts being made by the Government to curb gold imports, demand for the precious metal in India zoomed to a 10-year high (310 tonnes) in the three-month period ending June 30, according to the World Gold Council. Gold is very dear to Indian families and it is said to be second to China in import of precious metal. With return from Indian stock market not looking good in last few years and gold returns looking good in the last few years, the gold is also looked upon as an investment these days. However, this causes stress on foreign exchange due to import of gold. 

One may not know which factors can trigger a fall in exchange rate at any point of time in a global economy, unless there is a well planned and coordinated execution of growth oriented policies towards development of economy. Hence, is India really prepared for 'Open' Economy?

Also, at same time, fail to understand as how some of the developed countries even though have a higher deficit budget and with higher content of debt as percentage of their GDP has better currency exchange rate when compared to India?

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